Hello Rookie College Football Insight
Staff Pick – Best Week 8 CFB Bet
UCLA at Stanford (-6.5)
Trust us, we did not want to give a Thursday night game as our bet of the week, but we just could not get away from this line. This game opened at UCLA (+9.5) and the books actually took money on UCLA! Stanford is finally starting to play better football, looked great defensively against Washington, ran the ball well against a really good run defense, and Davis Mills went from 1 touchdown in the first month of the season to 4/0 TD/INT over his last two.
UCLA, on the other hand, has played one good quarter of football this season, and that had as much to do with a complete letdown from Washington State as it did anything they did. They were just beat by Oregon State by 17 at home… there is just no way they keep this within a touchdown at Stanford.
Staff Pick – Favorite Week 8 Underdog
Michigan (+9) at Penn State
We know this pick will be far from popular, given how these two teams have looked thus far this season. Steve Clifford put up massive numbers against teams like Purdue, Maryland, Buffalo, and Idaho, while Shea Patterson has struggled against similar opponents.
Both teams were extremely lucky to beat Iowa, but we thought Michigan looked better in that game than Penn State did. After holding Iowa to just 1-yard rushing, they clearly will be able to force Clifford to beat them here.
Can the first-year starter do it? We don’t think so.
Michigan has won 4 out of the last 5 meetings against Penn State, by an average margin of 22 points. Beyond just the recent history here, Michigan was a 4.5 point favorite in this game less than 2 months ago. Has Penn State made up that much ground?
Clearly the under is in play here as well this week. Both teams tend to play overly conservative in these big-time Big 10 games.
Staff Pick – Spread Bet of the Week
Boise State at BYU – UNDER 49.5
There are two ways to bet this game, and we feel equally strong about both. First, Boise is going to win and will cover the 6.5 points on the road. Second, the under is a no-brainer bet in this one.
While BYU’s defense isn’t a walkover, the true problem with this number is on the other side of the ball. Since losing Zach Wilson, BYU has struggled to put up points and has lost to two really weak football teams in Toledo and USF.
Assuming Boise can get to 30 in this one (possibly without Hank Bachmeier), BYU would need to put up 20 points for the over to hit. Not going to happen. Boise has the #34 defense in the country, and BYU’s #87 offense reflects 4+ games with a healthy Zach Wilson.