So far, after four short weeks, we have been blessed with a fun football season. It’s going to get
even better this week as we have been blessed with five match-ups between AP Top 25 teams.
It’s going to be an A+ entertainment experience but can be even trickier to bet. That’s where I come in. Here are my 3 college football best bets for Week 5. Let’s make some money!
Kentucky (+7) @ Ole Miss
Best Available Odds: -110 at Caesars
This game should be the best in the nation’s best conference. The Kentucky Wildcats and Ole Miss Rebels are both 4-0 to start the season and both have high hopes of being able to even compete with the giants of their divisions (Alabama and Georgia).
However, Vegas is rightfully down on the Wildcats after they struggled to pull out the W against Northern Illinois. I, on the other hand, am more on the side of fading Ole Miss.
Yes, the running game has been insane this season for Ole Miss as they are almost picking up six yards per carry. Yes, Lane Kiffin has been producing some of the most entertaining offenses in college football ever since he landed in Oxford.
But…that won’t be enough against a Kentucky team that holds opposing offenses to less than four yards per carry. Kentucky has the better defense, Kentucky has the better QB in Will Levis, Kentucky has every bit as much talent on the perimeter as Ole Miss and given all of that, they are still over a TD dog on the road.
Ole Miss can still win this game, but it won’t be by more than seven. Besides, Ole Miss is 6-6-1 ATS against SEC schools at home since Kiffin took over. Kentucky is 11-8-1 ATS in their last 20 contests as road underdogs.
These teams are pretty even but I have a strong feeling that Kentucky is even better from top to bottom. A seven-point spread will allow you some valuable margin for error. With Kentucky returning last season’s leading rusher Chris Rodriguez for this game, a little sprinkling on the UK money line could be in order.
Kentucky- Ole Miss Trends
– Kentucky is 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as road underdogs
– Lane Kiffin is 6-6-1 ATS at home against SEC schools since 2019
– Kentucky is 3-1 ATS this season, 1-0 ATS in SEC road games
– Ole Miss is 1-2 ATS in home games this season
– Under has hit in 3 of first 4 games for both teams
Iowa (+10.5) vs Michigan
Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet
Fading Iowa was fun during the opening weeks of the season, but it might be time to start betting on them to turn it around. The Hawkeye offense is still an absolute eye sore, but this is one of the best defensive teams in the country, surrendering an astonishingly low 5.8 points per game.
Michigan has been off to an impressive start and survived a conference scare against Maryland but surprisingly enough, has yet to play a road game this season. With a young QB in J.J. McCarthy and a team that had to replace a ton of defensive production, a first road test against a defense like Iowa can be intimidating. I like the Hawkeyes to give Michigan enough trouble to keep this game within single digits.
Iowa-Michigan Trends
– Michigan is 5-5 ATS in last 10 as road favorites, 2-2 in which the spread was 9.5+
– Under has hit 6 times in the last 10 meetings between these two teams
– Iowa is 3-2 ATS as a home underdog when the number is 9.5 or higher
– Iowa Unders are 7-2-1 in the last ten games as home underdogs
Clemson (-6.5) over NC State
Best Available Odds: -115 at PointsBet
I’ve done my fair share of Clemson fading since last year but, after winning a shootout on the road against a Wake Forest offense that I felt was the best in the ACC, the 2022 Tigers might have won me over. Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei bounced back from the lull he has been in since last year.
He lit up a good Wake Forest team like a Christmas Tree to the tune of 371 passing yards and 5 touchdowns. He now has a 10:1 TD-INT ratio and a Y/A of 9.2. With Will Shipley and the running game getting in gear, the Clemson offense finally looks the part of the role that we have expected them to play the last two years.
NC State is also rolling into Death Valley with good QB play, as Devin Leary has already thrown for 9 TDs. However, Clemson’s defensive unit is still too talented to let them be in this game.
It’s a top-ten matchup, but Clemson can keep it from being competitive if they force NC State into a similar shootout they were in last week against Wake Forest. NC State’s defense is still a big hurdle to covering a touchdown spread in this game.
The impressive defensive numbers the Wolfpack have put up this season can be explained by the weaker schedule. I like Clemson by 10 here.
Clemson-NC State Trends
– NC State is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games as road underdogs
– O/U is an even 2-2 for both teams this season
– Clemson is 10-0 SU in the last ten home games but only 3-7 ATS
– Clemson is 2-1 ATS against NC State in the last 3 meetings
